As one of just three ties between two Premier League sides, Chelsea and Newcastle’s clash on Sunday is the highest-quality fixture the Fourth Round of the FA Cup has to offer.
The Blues are inevitably the favourites, even more so at home, but amid a run of poor form and welcoming a former manager to Stamford Bridge in Rafa Benitez, the Magpies will sense the chances of an upset going into the 1.30pm clash.
But how likely is a Newcastle win? Which gaffer faces the most selection headaches? And how will the referee influence the match? Here’s everything you need to know ahead of kickoff…
Recent Form
While they may be separated by 27 points in the Premier League table, Chelsea and Newcastle both enter this fixture on relative parity in terms of form. Indeed, they both lost last time out against Arsenal and Manchester City respectively, and they’ve scored just six goals during their last five games – albeit the Magpies winning one more than the Blues.
In fact, Chelsea’s poor run stems back seven games, five of which they’ve drawn and only four of which they’ve managed to score in. Eden Hazard has been impressive in front of goal though, bagging a brace against Brighton and netting past Arsenal, while Ayoze Perez has brought three goals in the Toon’s last five – but two of those were against Luton in the Third Round.
Referee Influence – Kevin Friend
If there is any FA Cup magic involved in Sunday’s clash, it may well come from referee Kevin Friend. He’s easily amongst the most lenient officials to have worked in the top flight this season, ranking in the bottom three for fouls per tackle and fouls per game, while coming 12th out of 18 for yellow cards per match.
That should give Newcastle more license in terms of making the kind of physical challenges that will be vital to keeping the quality in Chelsea’s attack at bay, but that certainly doesn’t apply in the penalty area; Friend has averaged almost one penalty every two games in the Premier League and awarding spot kicks has been a recurring feature of his season. That’s a big warning for both teams going into the 1.30pm kickoff.
Chelsea, though, can take inspiration from the fact a division-highest 77% of the top flight matches Friend has officiated this season have ended in home wins.
Injury News & Likely Starting XIs
The absences of Thibaut Courtois, Cesc Fabregas and Alvaro Morata leave Chelsea facing significant gaps down the spine of the team, but it’s likely Antonio Conte will ring the changes for this one anyway after a draining game against Arsenal on Wednesday night.
We’re expecting Eden Hazard to be rested with January signing Ross Barkley – who Transfermarkt value at £22.5million – given the chance to impress as part of the attack rather than the midfield. Captain Gary Cahill looks set to start after being benched against the Gunners and fan favourite David Luiz could return alongside him in defence as well.
Controlling Victor Moses’ game-time has been a recurring trend this season so Davide Zappacosta could take the Nigerian international’s place at right wing-back, while the need to rotate may see Danny Drinkwater rekindle his partnership with N’Golo Kante in midfield. Michy Batshuayi, meanwhile, will surely get the nod up front despite Conte’s doubts over the Belgian striker.
Newcastle, too, will want to rest key players with an incredibly winnable game against Burnley on the horizon – three points at home against the Clarets will hugely aid their survival hopes. Unlike Chelsea though, Benitez doesn’t have a huge squad to rotate with, something that was evident in the last round when Newcastle fielded a relatively strong side at home against Luton.
However, we’re expecting to see a shift in formation from the 5-4-1 that lined up against Manchester City, with Isaac Hayden being replaced by Mikel Merino to complete a five-man midfield in a 4-2-3-1. Newcastle’s forward line and defence pretty much picks itself, although plenty would like to see Jamaal Lascelles rested this weekend.
Perhaps the only other point of contention then is the goalkeeper. 20-year-old Freddie Woodman started against Luton in the Third Round and could be given another opportunity to impress at Stamford Bridge.
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