Will Giannis Antetokounmpo finish the season in Milwaukee?
There was already plenty of anxiety in Milwaukee about Antetokounmpo’s future even before Tuesday’s ESPN report that the Bucks and Knicks discussed a deal last summer. Fans couldn’t have taken much comfort in Antetokounmpo’s comments on media day about his future in Milwaukee. Antetokounmpo continued to play his cards close, reiterating that his top priority was to win another championship—a goal the Bucks appear further away from than ever before.
For what it’s worth, I’m told there wasn’t any real traction in the Bucks-Knicks talks. Yes, they happened (that is news), but the late offseason timing coupled with New York not having an abundance of draft capital after swinging several deals over the last two years stopped them from getting serious. I’m also not sure the Knicks are sold on going all-in for Antetokounmpo, who will turn 31 in December. Could be posturing. Stay tuned.
But what happens if Milwaukee stumbles out of the gate? The Bucks will be working in a new big (Myles Turner) alongside Antetokounmpo and have a wing rotation loaded with questions. Even in a conference as anemic as the East, it’s easy to see Milwaukee hovering around .500 at Christmas.
What then? Conventional wisdom says Milwaukee—which won’t do anything without a clear signal from Antetokounmpo—would wait until the offseason. But there are teams very closely monitoring the situation. Houston, even after the Kevin Durant deal, has the kind of capital to make an offer. San Antonio, too. New York, Detroit and Orlando could also get in the mix. And while I’ve been explicitly told that Oklahoma City has no interest … I mean the Thunder could make it really interesting.
Antetokounmpo will control any trade. He has one year remaining on his deal after this one, so no team will make a serious offer without knowing he wants to be there. Still, the Heat proved last winter that a max player can be moved at the deadline. And Jimmy Butler ain’t got anything on Antetokounmpo.
Just how good will Desmond Bane make the Magic?
Recently, in a conversation about Bane, a rival team executive told me this about Orlando’s decision to surrender a king’s ransom for a player who had never made an All-Star team: “No way Orlando makes that deal if they are in the West,” says the exec. “But the East sucks and Bane could be the reason they win it.”
Indeed, Orlando ranks among this season’s most intriguing teams. The Magic have an elite defense—top three in defensive rating in each of the last three seasons, per NBA.com—that Bane, an athletic, versatile defender, should slide right into. And what they lacked—shot creating, three-point shooting—Bane brings to the table.
Can they win the East with it? There’s an argument to be made that the Magic were a contender the Bane trade, that had injuries not derailed them—to Paolo Banchero, then to Franz Wagner, then to Jalen Suggs—Orlando would have been in the mix for a top-four seed last season. With Bane, the Magic will inject life into an offense that finished in the bottom five, sandwiched between Toronto and Brooklyn.
Will it be enough? Orlando has the kind of physical, grinding defense that is invaluable in the postseason. Just ask Boston, where privately Celtics officials note that the Magic’s physicality took something out of them in its first-round series. If Bane is as advertised, Orlando can ride that defense deep into the conference playoffs. Or beyond.
Is this the Year of Wembanyama?
Last week, during a Spurs intrasquad scrimmage, Victor Wembanyama, in his first live action since a blood clot–related issue ended his season last February, took two dribbles past half court, dropped a shoulder into Luke Kornet, gathered and took one step before exploding for a two-handed dunk. The sequence—a clip of which quickly went viral—offered early evidence that two years into his pro career, Wembanyama is ready to take over.
If he is … look out. The Spurs were already a trendy pick to earn a playoff spot. De’Aaron Fox begins his first full season in San Antonio, Stephon Castle starts his second and San Antonio’s mix of veteran talent (Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan) and budding young stars (Castle, Dylan Harper) should make the Spurs competitive, even in the rugged West.
With Wembanyama, they could be more. Wembanyama’s ability to shrug off Kornet—who stands 7'2" and 250 pounds—is the next phase of his offensive development. It was a move that conjured images of Antetokounmpo, who is known for bulldozing opponents in transition. If Wemby adds to a burgeoning perimeter game and playmaking skills no 7'4" center has the right to have, the Spurs won’t just be a threat to make the playoffs. They can make some noise in it.
Can LeBron James go from Batman to Robin?
For 22 seasons James has been the unquestioned alpha on whatever team he’s played on. That won’t be the case in this one as the Lakers have officially entered the Luka Dončić era, with a team (and a future) being built around Dončić’s singular talents.
Publicly, James has been on board with it. On media day, he told reporters that he spent the offseason working on catch-and-shoot threes in anticipation of playing more minutes off the ball. James and those around him have signaled that there is one goal for James at this stage of his career: winning more championships. And he’s sounding like a guy willing to do whatever it takes to do it.
The Lakers need that. L.A.’s offense will run better with the ball in Dončić’s hands. That doesn’t mean James will spend the season in the dunker’s spot, but more of the offense will have to come to him as opposed to him generating it. He’ll also have to embrace load management. Last season’s output (70 games, 35 minutes per) should be a non-starter entering this one. Ideally, James slides under 30 minutes per game. James has historically resisted a lighter workload. He’ll need to be on board with it in this one.
Will there be a conversation about reseeding?
A familiar gripe from Western Conference execs is how unbalanced the conferences are. In the West, 14 of the 15 teams enter the season with playoff aspirations, with at least eight believing they can make a deep postseason run. In the East, there’s just a handful of legitimate contenders.
“Unbalanced schedule” is a common argument reseeding in the playoffs. Western Conference teams play more games against West teams, Eastern against East, etc. Still, for most of this century the balance of power has been in the West, a dynamic that doesn’t appear to be changing anytime soon. The NBA has shown little appetite for reseeding. But with the conference playoffs shaping up to have varsity vs. JV vibes, maybe they should.
Will Mike Brown make or break the Knicks?
Early reports have been overwhelmingly positive about Brown’s impact in New York. In Abu Dhabi, the Knicks unveiled their free-flowing offense, one that emphasizes pace and ball movement. Jalen Brunson playing off the ball, the team sprinting on every possession. It is indeed a new era in New York.
Of course, kicking the crap out of the already injury-ravaged 76ers can only reveal so much. It remains to be seen whether Brunson, who emerged as an All-Star starter in Tom Thibodeau’s offense, fully embraces the new system. And the Knicks have the fifth best offensive rating last season. As predictable as the offense was, it yielded results.
Will Brown’s system be better? The bar has been set. It’s Finals or bust in New York after last season’s run. For all the criticism of Thibodeau, his exit had as much to do with internal dynamics as the Knicks’ performance on the court. Brown and New York’s front office are in lockstep with each other. Now all he needs are better results.
A sink or swim year in Minnesota
Am I the only one with an uneasy feeling about the Timberwolves? The erosion of talent in Minnesota continued this offseason, when the cap-strapped Wolves had to let Nickeil Alexander-Walker exit. To replace him, Minnesota will lean on Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark, talented but unproven wings.
That will be a theme in Minnesota. The Timberwolves have plenty of proven vets, led by Anthony Edwards, a candidate to lead the league in scoring. But the Wolves have invested heavily in young talent. Rob Dillingham, the eighth pick in the 2024 draft, will need to take on a bigger role. Shannon and Clark will need to play bigger roles. Even Joan Beringer, who racked up 14 points in the preseason opener, should be ready.
Minnesota is still a good team with one of the top young stars in the NBA. But they barely avoided the play-in last season and Rudy Gobert, the Wolves’ defensive anchor, isn’t getting any younger. It’s fair to say Minnesota’s season could swing on how much it gets from its young talent.
Can skinny Zion get the Pelicans back on track?
It was encouraging to see Zion Williamson muscling his way to the rim in Australia this week. Williamson turned heads at media day with a slimmed-down physique and his performances in the Pels’ first preseason games offered more reason to be optimistic about Williamson’s future.
Will that yield team success? It’s worth noting that the last time Williamson was healthy, the Pelicans won 49 games, made the playoffs and looked like a team on the upswing. New Orleans is loaded with young talent: Herbert Jones (who is looking to bounce back from injury issues of his own), Trey Murphy III, Yves Missi. Derik Queen showed signs at Summer League that he will be a factor.
Everything, though, hinges on Williamson’s ability to stay healthy. Joe Dumars, the Pelicans’ top basketball exec, seems to have forged a strong relationship with Williamson. If Dumars can coax the kind of production we saw from Williamson two years ago, when he suited up for 70 games, the Pels could get right back on track.
Who are the names to watch at the trade deadline?
Lauri Markkanen is the name I hear most frequently. Utah passed on an offer from Golden State for Markkanen in the summer of 2024, believing a stronger market would materialize. It didn’t, and right now there is a belief that the Jazz are open for business on their 28-year-old ex-All-Star.
Elsewhere, teams are monitoring how Cleveland starts the season. The Evan Mobley–Jarrett Allen tandem has been a smashing success and done a lot to protect the Cavs’ small-ish backcourt. Still, most believe Mobley’s long-term future is at center and Allen, a durable rim protector who shot a league-high 70.6% last season, could be available for the right mix of rotation players.
In Chicago, the endless trade chatter around Nikola Vucevic is expected to pick up. The Bulls have (finally) seemed to settle on a direction, building a team around the young talent of Josh Giddey, Coby White, Matas Buzelis, Patrick Williams, et al. Vucevic, who is set to make a very tradeable $21.4 million on the final year of his deal, will be appealing to teams look for more offensive firepower in the frontcourt.
Are the Hawks for real?
Atlanta is fascinating. In response to a less-than-stellar Trae Young season, the Hawks loaded up around him. Kristaps Porzingis like an ideal pick-and-pop threat, Alexander-Walker is a proven wing defender and everyone in Atlanta is excited about the development of Jalen Johnson and Zaccharie Risacher.
Will it all come together? The Hawks chose not to extend Young last summer, leaving the door open for a roster reboot next summer if the team underachieves. Still, this is arguably the most talented team Young has had in his eight seasons in Atlanta. And the Eastern Conference, as noted above, is the worst it’s been in generations. The table is set for the Hawks to make a big move.
